I came across this thought piece by Joseph Bast, head of the Heartland Institute. He suggests that we’re at a precipice in American politics, and that in the next eight years, we’ll have four – count ‘em – four major parties. Republicans, Democrats, Progressives, and Libertarians will all battle it out for the hearts and minds of the voters.

I hope he’s right. Bast suggests that the “progressive” wing of Democrats will split the donkey as soon as 2008. And then the GOP will schism in 2012. As one who’s been known to prognosticate – and badly – I’m not sure this isn’t wishful thinking. Bast is right that there are at least two wings in the DP, the progressives and the moderates. And there’s at least two wings in the GOP, social conservatives and moderates, libertarian-ish types. But that’s overly simplistic. The former House Speaker Tip O’Neill once aptly said “All politics is local,” and methinks Tip was more or less correct.

When a pol gets ambitions, he or she first figures out what he or she believes in, and how will he or she achieve his or her goal. The latter part is mostly about money. What positions should I take to garner majorities of the voters AND campaign contributions? How do I tap into pre-existing networks of donors, for I’ve not the time to create my own? (Howard Dean may have broken the mold in 2004, raising money on the ‘Net predominantly, but he lost.)

Bast is probably correct that the DP is more likely to split than the GOP. The Nader/Soros phenomenon seems somewhat ascendant and mildly successful in resuscitating the old McGovern wing of the donkeys. Still, what’s the tipping point? What would cause these more ideological progressives to leave the fold? Bast is silent on the matter. My sense is that we’d need to have a major crisis to split the donkey. It further seems to me that it’d need to be a bit top-down. That is, to gain anything more than the Nader, single-digit-results, elect no one, sideshow curiousity, this Progressive Party that Bast predicts would need to get converts almost immediately. That might imply bolting by the Congressional Black Caucus, Barney Franks, Dennis Kucinich, Barbara Boxer, and Tom Harkin.

Without that sort of heft, how do the Progressives get out of the gate? They’d be hopelessly bogged down in the mechanics of getting on the ballot, raising money, and finding candidates who are not amateurs. This has been tried before…there was a Citizens Party in the 80s that fizzled, and the Green Party is giving the Libertarian Party a run for its money, yet it remains an asterisk at best.

The GOP splitting under Bast’s wonderful scenario seems even a weaker notion. While I consider the difference between William Weld and Tom DeLay to be rather large, why wouldn’t both stay in the GOP, where the networks and funding bases are established? There, it strikes me, would need to be another crisis to schism the elephant.

Bast paints a nice picture, from where I sit. Four parties would be far more representative of American politics than two. But the institutional impediments cannot be ignored.

-Robert Capozzi