How would America have been different if Ford had won Ohio (and the presidency) in 1976? It's actually a pretty interesting question and there are enough folks around who would have been on his staff to get serious answers. I will throw out some leading questions under the fold and make my guesses and let respondents come to their own conclusions (and post them).

Would Ford have appointed Paul Volker as Fed Chair, who raised interest rates and stalled the economy in order to stop inflation? Would he have used the power of the office to have whoever was at the Fed to react differently? Someone has to know.

I have no doubt that the Shah would have fallen anyway, however things might have been different with Dick Cheney as Chief of Staff and Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State. The hostages might still have been taken, but the response would have undoubtedly been different.

Would Carter have won the nomination in 1980 against Ted Kennedy? The party establishment would likely have treated Kennedy a bit differently than if he had been running against a sitting President. I think he would have won the nomination and likely the election as well, given that the likely GOP nominee would have been Bob Dole.

Next comes the tricky question, which may be in bad taste, but I will ask it anyway. Would he have survived John Hinkley's attempt to kill the President? Would he have had tighter security that day, entering through a basement? If not, would he been healthy enough to survive the shot Reagan took? If not, who would he have selected for Vice President (someone has to know) and would that person have won in 1984? If Kennedy had avoided a Hinkley attempt or survived it, would he have served two terms? Would he have gotten health care passed in 1981, or would it have passed in his memory then (instead of now).

Would Reagan have won a first election in 1984? (I seriously doubt it - being elected at 73 is much different than at 69). Could George H.W. Bush have beaten Kennedy or his VP that year? Would he have ever been President without being VP first? (Again, I doubt it.) What about Howard Baker? In 1984, what Republican governor could have beaten Reagan? Would Jack Kemp have been Dole's running mate in 1980 without Kemp-Roth and his service as HUD Secretary? I doubt it. The GOP would have been different. I doubt that under anyone else the Reagan tax cuts would have been passed, or even proposed without Reagan. Some cut would have been likely and tax simplification would likely have happened with lower rates, but they would have been revenue neutral to the pre-1981 cuts. My guess is that in 1984 or 1988, Howard Baker would have been President and held office until 1993, or even 1997.

Was Bill Clinton inevitable? (I think so). If Kennedy had been toppled in 84, would he have run in 88 or would Dukakis have still won the nomination? Would Mondale have ever run without being Carter's VP? What about Al Gore? Would he have been Kennedy's VP and would he have held in 84 if Kennedy did not survive John Hinkley? If Kennedy had passed health care reform, would the Republican counter revolution of 1994 have happened? (I doubt it). If Gore were Kennedy's VP, would he have won in his own right? Again, I don't think so. Baker would have beaten him. If he had been President or Vice President, he would not have been Clinton's VP. I wonder who would have been? We could ask Bill, since he would know.

What about after Clinton? Without Bush I, Bush II would never have been Governor of Texas, Karl Rove would not be the boy genius of the GOP and John McCain would have been President in 2000. 9-11 still would have happened, but Iraq would not have. Would John McCain have done two terms, or would the Presidency have killed him by 2004? We can always ask him who is VP would have been in 2000. If he had survived, would that VP have won in 2008? If not, would the VP have won in 2004? Would McCain have run the White House like he ran the campaign in 2008?

Obama would not have been ready for the Presidency in 2004, but would Kerry have been the go-to-guy who could have beaten him? If Kerry had won, would he have won a second term in 2008? My guess is that if McCain had won a second term, Obama would be President now. If Kerry had beaten McCain in 2004, he might have been reelected and would be President today - although given his performance, or lack thereof, against the swift boaters, he might have bungled it. If he had, would Romney have won the nomination in 2008 and the Presidency? (I can't see that either, since he would not have won the south in the primaries, no matter what). My guess is that Huckabee might have won the nomination if not for John McCain. He might have even beaten Kerry and we would be talking about the Fair Tax now instead of Health Care Reform, although he would likely have gotten, and settled for a VAT with a high floor income tax on the wealthy - although none of the Presidents in my scenario would have cut taxes like either Reagan or Bush II. Could Huck get re-elected? Probably not, since voters react to consumption taxes in a negative way, so Obama would win in 2012, since Hillary would have been badly advised by Terry MacAuliffe and would have still avoided the caucusses. Would he select Biden in 2012 if running for the first time? Probably not. If McCain had been President in 2000, immigration reform, with amnesty, would have happened then and all those people on a path to citizenship would have it by 2016, leading Obama to pick Richardson as VP to gain their favor.

Feel free to comment with your own scenarios. To summarize mine: Ford/Dole wins in 76. Kennedy/Gore in 1980. Baker/Bush in 1984 and 1988 (as a backlash against health care reform and with no tax cut). Clinton/whomever in 1992 and 1996. McCain/whomever in 2000. Kerry/Edwards in 2004. Huckabee/Pawlenty in 2008. Obama/Richardson 2012 (beating Huck) and after that, I won't speculate except to say that 2016 would be Obama v. Pawlenty (which may happen in 2012 unless Romney gets a southern strategy for the primaries).