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August 13, 2008

Jeanne Dixon, Russia v. Georgia, China, the CIA and Global Warming

There is a book by Jeannie Dixon where she predicted a Chinese migration into Russia. Given the current demographic reality, with the bulk of the Chinese population concentrated on their coast, this seems nutty.

Given the possibility of global warming and the current conflict between Russia and Georgia, her premonition deserves a second look.

It is hoped that the CIA is looking into what would happen if sea levels rose and the price of gasoline began to rise again. Global warming may be off the table at EPA, it should not be at CIA. Both energy prices and rising sea levels may drive the majority of the Chinese population away from the coast and the Chinese military west in search of oil, which is conveniently located in Siberia. Global warming and changing weather patterns could water the Gobi, or at least force the kind of technological development which makes drinking water more available in the Russian Steppe.

Due to the value of the resources contested in any Sino-Russian conflict, nuclear weapons won't be used - at least not strategic ones. This makes analysis of Russian v. Chinese conventional capabilities over the coming years essential. As we learned in Korea, China has the advantage of numbers, even after the one-child policy has been in effect for a generation. As those pampered pets need gas for their cars they may go west to get it. Picking on the Georgians, or even pushing back against Georgean militants, is one thing. Fighting a surging China, whether in war or in illegal immigration, is another (as we know with our southern border).

Posted by MichaelBindner at 09:48 PM | Comments (3)

May 06, 2006

Sticking it to the Welfare State

A German liberal (the free-market variety) has moved to Paraguay and is declaring that hundreds of foreign children are his, which will put them on the German welfare rolls.

Hass has decided to take advantage of a loophole in Germany's legal system that allows men to recognize children as their own as long as the mother agrees and no other man claims paternity. The 56-year-old has told the magazine that he's already recognized about 300 children from Paraguay, Romania, Hungary, Moldavia, Russia, Ukraine and India.

Read the rest of the story at Deutsche Welle.

It's an interesting example of the difficulty of having a social welfare state. Even when the club is closed to outsiders, those already on the inside can engage in behavior which imposes costs on the other members of the club. The solution of course is to limit the behavior of the members to minimize the damage they can do to others. This means, of course, a general reduction in freedom.

-- Kevin D. Rollins

Posted by KevinRollins at 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

November 23, 2005

Austrian Darkness & EU Light

Usually, winter in the Alps makes me think of a sunny ski vacation, but not Rattenberg, Austria, which like parts of Alaska and other places very far north is shrouded by darkness in the winter. Unlike in Alaska, “sun is plentiful less than 10 minutes' walk from the town and from Rat Mountain, the 3,000-foot hill that blocks its sunlight between November and February each year,” reports the AP wire.

The plight of the people of Rattenberg speaks to everyone who has ever walked about in state of depressed misery while everyone else around them was having a great time. Rattenberg is that sad little head that bobs along while being rained on by its personal rain cloud in the Zoloft commercials.

But, enter in a very expensive solution from the EU, and we become less sympathetic. The plan is to put mirrors on the mountain to reflect light into the town. “The European Union is footing half the $2.4 million bill, and the company says it will pay the $600,000 cost of planning the project, gambling that success will attract more business.”

All this, for a town of 440 people, according to the AP story. That’s about $5500/person. So, we ask ourselves, do they get $5500 of benefit? It’s only a 10-minute walk to sunshine after all. And does everyone really want sunshine? If you choose to live in Rattenberg, and NOT the town next door, you probably aren’t bothered that much by it. Apparently, they have a kickass skate park and every Alpine village has good beer. Do drugged-out skaters or hung-over beer drinkers need MORE sunshine? I don’t know, maybe they do. But, why not just give the people of Rattenberg $5500 each?

Imagine the possibilities:

- Juergen could move around the mountain.
- Heinz could buy a tanning bed.
- Lars could go on Zoloft.
- Max could buy some grow lamps and make his own herbal remedy.

I’m not completely opposed to this project, because it tickles my sci-fi funny bone, and I would be interested in seeing it in action. Of course, I’m not paying to build it either.

-- Kevin D. Rollins

Posted by KevinRollins at 05:11 PM | Comments (0)

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